The Return of Crisis (Chris Martenson)

Re-blogging a couple key paragraphs from a longer piece by Chris Martenson, from Peak Prosperity… Here’s the takeaway:

Let me be blunt: this next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before. Literally, the world has never seen anything like the situation we collectively find ourselves in today. The so-called Great Depression happened for purely monetary reasons.  Before, during and after the Great Depression, abundant resources, spare capacity and willing workers existed in sufficient quantities to get things moving along smartly again once the financial system had been reset.

This time there’s something different in the story line: the absence of abundant and high-net energy oil. Many of you might be thinking “Hey, the price of oil is low!” which is true, but only momentarily. Remember that price is not the same thing as net energy, which is what’s left over after you expend energy to get a fossil fuel like oil out of the ground. As soon as the world economy tries to grow rapidly again, we’ll discover that oil will quickly go through two to possibly three complete doublings in price due to supply issues. And those oil price spikes will collide into that tower of outstanding debt, making the economic growth required to inflate them away a lot more expensive (both cost-wise and energetically) to come by.

With every passing moment, the world has slightly less high-net energy conventional oil and is replacing that with low-net energy oil.  Consider how we’re producing less barrels of production in the North Sea while coaxing more out of the tar sands. From a volume or a price standpoint right now, the casual observer would notice nothing. But it takes a lot more energy to get a barrel of oil from tar sands. So there’s less net energy which can be used to grow the world economy after that substitution.


Read the whole thing: The Return of Crisis